COVID-19 Could Become Like Common Cold In Future, Study Suggests | News

May 21, 2021 0 Comments



For the study, the researchers analysed several scenarios and their versions set up a situation where an increasing proportion of the population will become predisposed to mild COVID-19 disease over the long term

Highlights
  • Over the next decade, the severity of COVID-19 may decrease: Researcher
  • The researcher cited ‘population’s immunity’ behind decrease in severity
  • If variants overcome partial immunity, COVID-19 could turn for the worse

New Delhi: The novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 could cause no more than common cold-like coughs and sniffles within the next decade, according to a study. The research, published in the journal Viruses, makes this likely prediction based on mathematical models that incorporate lessons learned from the current pandemic on how our body’s immunity changes over time. “This shows a possible future that has not yet been fully addressed,” said Fred Adler, a professor of mathematics and biological sciences at the University of Utah in the US.

Also Read: COVID-19: Two Oxford/Astrazeneca Vaccine Doses 85-90 Per Cent Effective, Real-World Study Finds

Over the next decade, the severity of COVID-19 may decrease as populations collectively develop immunity, Fred Adler said.

The study suggests that changes in the disease could be driven by adaptations of our immune response rather than by changes in the virus itself. Although the SARS-CoV-2 virus is the best-known member of the family, other seasonal coronaviruses circulate in the human population, and they are less dangerous. The researchers noted that some evidence indicates that one of these cold-causing relatives might have once been severe, giving rise to the “Russian flu” pandemic in the late 19th century. The parallels led the scientists to wonder whether the severity of SARS-CoV-2 could similarly lessen over time. They built mathematical models incorporating evidence on the body’s immune response to SARS-CoV-2. Analysing several scenarios and their versions set up a situation where an increasing proportion of the population will become predisposed to mild disease over the long term.

Also Read: Expert Answers Questions On COVID-19 Vaccination And Treatment

In the beginning of the pandemic, no one had seen the virus before. Our immune system was not prepared, Fred Adler explained.

The models show that as more adults become partially immune, whether through prior infection or vaccination, severe infections all but disappear over the next decade, the researchers said. Eventually, the only people who will be exposed to the virus for the first time will be children who are naturally less prone to severe disease, they said.

Also Read: COVID Challenge Remains As Long As Infection Exists Even At Minor Scale: PM Modi

The novel approach here is to recognise the competition taking place between mild and severe COVID-19 infections and ask which type will get to persist in the long run, said Alexander Beams, study first author and graduate student at University of Utah.

“We have shown that mild infections will win, as long as they train our immune systems to fight against severe infections,” Alexander Beams said.

However, the researchers noted that the models do not account for every potential influence on disease trajectory. For instance, if new virus variants overcome partial immunity, COVID-19 could take a turn for the worse, they said. The team also noted that these predictions will hold up only if the key assumptions of the models hold up.

Our next step is comparing our model predictions with the most current disease data to assess which way the pandemic is going as it is happening, Fred Adler added.

Also Read: Third Wave Of COVID-19 Possible If Vaccination Not Ramped Up, COVID Norms Not Followed: Scientist

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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World

16,61,31,300Cases

6,01,97,371Active

10,24,91,352Recovered

34,42,577Deaths

Coronavirus has spread to 192 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 16,61,31,300 and 34,42,577 have died; 6,01,97,371 are active cases and 10,24,91,352 have recovered as on May 22, 2021 at 3:48 am.

India

2,62,89,290 2,57,299Cases

29,23,4001,04,525Active

2,30,70,365 3,57,630Recovered

2,95,525 4,194Deaths

In India, there are 2,62,89,290 confirmed cases including 2,95,525 deaths. The number of active cases is 29,23,400 and 2,30,70,365 have recovered as on May 22, 2021 at 2:30 am.

State Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths
Maharashtra

55,27,092 29,644

3,69,673 16,112

50,70,801 44,493

86,618 1,263

Karnataka

23,67,742 32,218

5,14,259 20,716

18,29,276 52,581

24,207 353

Kerala

22,93,632 29,673

3,06,719 11,501

19,79,919 41,032

6,994 142

Tamil Nadu

17,70,988 36,184

2,74,629 11,239

14,76,761 24,478

19,598 467

Uttar Pradesh

16,59,212 7,682

1,06,276 10,158

15,34,176 17,668

18,760 172

Andhra Pradesh

15,42,079 20,937

2,09,156 22

13,23,019 20,811

9,904 104

Delhi

14,12,959 3,009

35,683 4,531

13,54,445 7,288

22,831 252

West Bengal

12,29,805 19,847

1,32,181 671

10,83,570 19,017

14,054 159

Chhattisgarh

9,41,366 4,943

76,446 5,020

8,52,529 9,867

12,391 96

Rajasthan

9,03,418 6,225

1,31,806 12,168

7,64,137 18,264

7,475 129

Gujarat

7,80,471 4,251

84,421 4,597

6,86,581 8,783

9,469 65

Madhya Pradesh

7,57,119 4,384

67,625 5,100

6,82,100 9,405

7,394 79

Haryana

7,28,607 5,643

54,397 7,955

6,66,893 13,486

7,317 112

Bihar

6,81,199 5,154

49,312 5,095

6,27,548 10,151

4,339 98

Odisha

6,68,422 12,523

98,610 1,615

5,67,382 10,881

2,430 27

Telangana

5,47,727 3,464

44,395 1,362

5,00,247 4,801

3,085 25

Punjab

5,28,676 5,253

63,470 3,571

4,52,318 8,652

12,888 172

Assam

3,59,640 6,066

54,163 998

3,02,889 4,987

2,588 81

Jharkhand

3,27,035 2,151

24,499 2,012

2,97,776 4,117

4,760 46

Uttarakhand

3,07,566 3,626

63,373 5,270

2,38,593 8,780

5,600 116

Jammu And Kashmir

2,63,905 3,848

49,893 661

2,10,547 4,466

3,465 43

Himachal Pradesh

1,75,384 2,662

31,519 1,929

1,41,213 4,534

2,652 57

Goa

1,43,192 1,625

19,328 1,480

1,21,562 3,075

2,302 30

Puducherry

93,167 1,702

17,936 341

73,936 2,017

1,295 26

Chandigarh

57,737 406

5,675 398

51,382 790

680 14

Tripura

45,223 864

7,337 530

37,429 332

457 2

Manipur

42,565 656

6,298 606

35,606 1,247

661 15

Meghalaya

27,755 828

6,861 384

20,480 419

414 25

Arunachal Pradesh

23,553 394

2,916 185

20,545 206

92 3

Nagaland

19,593 309

4,588 69

14,747 227

258 13

Ladakh

17,146 121

1,599 10

15,374 110

173 1

Sikkim

12,521 317

3,175 53

9,126 261

220 3

Mizoram

10,024 284

2,473 170

7,521 114

30

Dadra And Nagar Haveli

9,880 30

607 65

9,269 95

4

Andaman And Nicobar Islands

6,789 31

274 13

6,417 16

98 2

Lakshadweep

6,101 345

1,828 164

4,251 179

22 2





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