Herd Immunity Appears Unlikely For COVID-19, But CDC Says Vaccinated People Can Ditch Masks In Most Settings | News
Highlights
- Immunity can result from either vaccination or prior infection: Expert
- Herd immunity is when there are enough immune people in population: Expert
- Herd immunity may exist globally or in a country or region: Expert
By William Petri, Professor of Medicine, University of Virginia Charlottesville (US)
When COVID-19 first began spreading, public health and medical experts began talking about the need for the US to reach herd immunity to stop the coronavirus from spreading. Experts have estimated that between 60 per cent and 90 per cent of people in the US would need to be vaccinated for that to happen. Only about 35 per cent of the population has been fully vaccinated, and yet the CDC said on May 14, 2021 that fully vaccinated people can lose their masks in most indoor and outdoor settings.
An important question now arises: What happens if we don’t reach herd immunity? Dr. William Petri is a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Virginia who helps lead the global program to achieve herd immunity for polio as the chair of the World Health Organization’s Polio Research Committee.
He answers questions here about herd immunity and COVID-19. What is herd immunity? Herd immunity occurs when there are enough immune people in a population that new infections stop.
It means that enough people have achieved immunity to disrupt person-to-person transmission in the community, thereby protecting nonimmune people. Immunity can result from either vaccination or prior infection. Herd immunity may exist globally, as it does with smallpox, or in a country or region.
For example, the US and many other countries have achieved herd immunity for polio and measles, even though global herd immunity does not yet exist. Has herd immunity been achieved globally for other infections? This has happened only once on a global scale, with the eradication of smallpox in 1980. This was after a decade-long worldwide intensive vaccination campaign.
We also are also approaching global herd immunity for polio. When the Global Polio Eradication Initiative was formed in 1988 there were 125 countries with endemic polio and over 300,000 children paralysed annually.
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Today, after 33 years of immunisation campaigns, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the only countries with wild polio virus, with only two cases of paralysis due to wild poliovirus this year.
So herd immunity can be achieved worldwide, but only through extraordinary efforts with global collaboration. It seems as though the goal posts for herd immunity keep changing. Why? Experts estimate that between 60 per cent and 90 per cent of the US population would need to be immune for there to be herd immunity.
This wide range is because there are many moving parts that determine what is needed to achieve herd immunity. Factors influencing whether the target is 60 per cent or 90 per cent include how well vaccination and prior infection prevent not only illness due to COVID-19, but also infection and transmission to others.
Additional considerations include the heightened transmissibility of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and the use of measures to interrupt transmission, including face masks and social distancing. Other important factors include the duration of immunity after vaccination or infection, and environmental factors such as seasonality, population sizes and density and heterogeneity within populations in immunity.
What is the biggest barrier to herd immunity in the US? Two factors could lead to failure to achieve high enough levels of immunity: not every adult receiving the vaccine because of vaccine hesitancy and the likely need to vaccinate adolescents and children.
The FDA cleared the emergency use of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for adolescents 12 to 15 years of age on May 10, 2021, so that could help. But an added barrier is the constant pressure of reintroduction of infection from other countries where vaccination is not as readily available as in the US.
Also Read: COVID-19 Rapidly Spreading In Rural Areas: PM Narendra Modi
Achieving herd immunity to the extent of totally blocking new infections is therefore, while a laudable goal, not easily achievable. I think that for COVID-19 at this time, it will be possible only with the concerted global effort over years, similar to what led to smallpox eradication. Why are there vaccine hesitant’ individuals? People may be vaccine hesitant for several reasons, including lack of confidence in the vaccine, the inconvenience of receiving the vaccine, or complacency that is, thinking that if they get COVID-19 it will not be severe.
Lack of confidence includes concerns for vaccine safety or skepticism about the health care providers and public health officials administering them. Complacency reflects a personal decision that vaccination is not a priority for that individual because she or he perceives that the infection is not serious or because of competing priorities for time.
Convenience issues include the availability and complexity, such as having to get two doses. Since herd immunity will not be reached, what will our lives look like? At least into 2022 and likely for much longer, I do not expect there will be herd immunity for COVID-19. What there will be, probably by the end of this summer in the US, is a new normalcy.
There will be far fewer cases and deaths due to COVID-19, and there will be a removal of social distancing and year-round masking, as evidenced by the CDC’s new guidelines issued May 13, 2021, that vaccinated people do not have to wear masks in most places. But there will be a seasonality to coronavirus infections. That means there will be less in the summer and more in the winter.
We’ll also see outbreaks in regions and population subgroups that lack adequate immunity, short-lived lockdowns of cities or regions, new and more transmissible variants and a likely requirement for vaccine booster shots. We cannot let down on the research and development of treatments and new vaccines, as studies show that COVID-19 is here to stay.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
NDTV – Dettol Banega Swasth India campaign is an extension of the five-year-old Banega Swachh India initiative helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. It aims to spread awareness about critical health issues facing the country. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (Water, Sanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign highlights the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children to prevent maternal and child mortality, fight malnutrition, stunting, wasting, anaemia and disease prevention through vaccines. Importance of programmes like Public Distribution System (PDS), Mid-day Meal Scheme, POSHAN Abhiyan and the role of Aganwadis and ASHA workers are also covered. Only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and become a Swasth or healthy India. The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollution, waste management, plastic ban, manual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene.
World
16,30,60,247Cases
6,06,26,271Active
9,90,55,095Recovered
33,78,881Deaths
Coronavirus has spread to 192 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 16,30,60,247 and 33,78,881 have died; 6,06,26,271 are active cases and 9,90,55,095 have recovered as on May 17, 2021 at 3:57 am.
India
2,49,65,463 281386Cases
35,16,997 -101461Active
2,11,74,076 378741Recovered
2,74,390 4106Deaths
In India, there are 2,49,65,463 confirmed cases including 2,74,390 deaths. The number of active cases is 35,16,997 and 2,11,74,076 have recovered as on May 17, 2021 at 2:30 am.
State & District Details
| State | Cases | Active | Recovered | Deaths |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DistrictCases Mumbai45,478 Thane13,660 Pune9,920 Mumbai Suburban5,363 Aurangabad1,974 Nashik1,575 Raigad1,462 Palghar1,421 Solapur1,291 Jalgaon1,039 Akola757 Nagpur692 Kolhapur646 Satara629 Ratnagiri350 Amravati291 Dhule228 Hingoli208 Jalna201 Ahmednagar190 Nanded176 Yavatmal150 Sangli145 Latur139 Osmanabad125 Sindhudurg114 Buldhana88 Parbhani78 gondia69 Beed54 Nandurbar42 Gadchiroli42 Bhandara41 Chandrapur32 Washim13 Wardha11 |
53,78,452 34,389 |
4,70,595 25,903 |
48,26,371 59,318 |
81,486 974 |
|
DistrictCases Udupi1,176 Kalaburagi669 Yadgir538 Bengaluru Urban529 Raichur369 Mandya346 Belagavi337 Bidar219 Hassan205 Davangere204 Vijayapura201 Dakshina Kannada179 Chikkaballapura149 Mysuru107 Bagalkote103 Uttara Kannada95 Shivamogga67 Dharwad61 Ballari60 Gadag45 Bengaluru Rural40 Tumakuru36 Kolar29 Haveri24 Chikkamagaluru19 Chitradurga14 Koppal5 Kodagu4 Ramanagara3 Chamarajanagara0 |
22,03,462 31,531 |
6,00,168 5,347 |
15,81,457 36,475 |
21,837 403 |
|
DistrictCases Kannur357 Kasaragod333 Palakkad224 Malappuram119 Kollam118 Thrissur106 Thiruvananthapuram104 Pathanamthitta98 Kozhikode90 Alappuzha76 Kottayam73 Ernakulam60 Idukki40 Wayanad36 |
21,47,967 29,704 |
4,41,011 4,681 |
17,00,528 34,296 |
6,428 89 |
|
DistrictCases Gautam Buddha Nagar1,119 Agra933 Ghaziabad794 Meerut504 Lucknow386 Saharanpur298 Kanpur Nagar286 Moradabad252 Varanasi243 Hapur225 Aligarh215 Basti214 Amethi206 Rampur203 Jaunpur194 Firozabad190 Barabanki168 Gorakhpur166 Bulandshahr166 Siddharth Nagar159 Ghazipur159 Bijnor157 Deoria143 Azamgarh138 Sant Kabeer Nagar132 Mathura129 Ayodhya120 Muzaffarnagar117 Sambhal116 Sultanpur97 Ambedkar Nagar92 Maharajganj85 Amroha80 Rae Bareli78 Bahraich73 Kheri72 Kannauj69 Baghpat68 Kushi Nagar67 Bhadohi60 Ballia60 Gonda59 Etah52 Hardoi49 Balrampur49 Mau48 Mainpuri46 Etawah46 Hathras43 Unnao42 Jalaun41 Jhansi41 Shamli40 Chandauli38 Auraiya37 Farrukhabad36 Sitapur32 Prayagraj30 Banda27 Shahjahanpur25 Shravasti23 Budaun23 Mirzapur22 Bareilly17 Kasganj16 Pratapgarh15 Pilibhit15 Sonbhadra10 Kaushambi6 Kanpur Dehat4 Chitrakoot4 Lalitpur3 Hamirpur3 Mahoba3 Fatehpur3 |
16,19,645 10,505 |
1,63,003 14,640 |
14,39,096 24,837 |
17,546 308 |
|
DistrictCases Chennai23,324 Chengalpattu1,314 Thiruvallur774 Villupuram509 Kanchipuram503 Tiruvannamalai496 Cuddalore477 Ariyalur444 Tirunelveli433 Tuticorin333 Kallakurichi324 Madurai322 Salem258 Coimbatore188 Virudhunagar185 Dindigul175 Perambalur133 Ranipet133 Thanjavur130 Theni129 Tiruchirappalli119 Ramanathapuram119 Tiruppur116 Kanniyakumari110 Tenkasi103 Nagapattinam99 Karur88 Namakkal83 Erode75 Vellore71 Thiruvarur67 Pudukkottai53 Sivaganga46 Tirupathur45 Krishnagiri43 The Nilgiris17 Dharmapuri15 |
15,98,216 33,181 |
2,19,342 11,553 |
13,61,204 21,317 |
17,670 311 |
|
DistrictCases Kurnool795 Krishna557 Guntur511 Anantapur428 East Godavari356 Chittoor319 Sri Potti Sriramulu Nell*296 Y.S.R.205 West Godavari199 Srikakulam183 Prakasam104 Visakhapatnam103 Vizianagaram23 |
14,35,491 24,171 |
2,10,436 2,969 |
12,15,683 21,101 |
9,372 101 |
|
DistrictCases North West5,463 Central4,817 West4,768 New Delhi3,405 North3,059 East2,472 South East2,446 South West2,391 South2,329 North East1,914 Shahdara1,580 |
13,93,867 6,456 |
62,783 3,512 |
13,09,578 9,706 |
21,506 262 |
|
DistrictCases Kolkata2,777 Howrah1,435 24 Paraganas North1,031 Hooghly604 24 Paraganas South281 Maldah235 Dinajpur Uttar216 Coochbehar210 Birbhum206 Medinipur West159 Medinipur East153 Nadia139 Purba Bardhaman130 Murshidabad125 Bankura116 Darjeeling97 Jalpaiguri88 Paschim Bardhaman70 Purulia66 Dinajpur Dakshin50 Alipurduar39 Kalimpong18 Jhargram9 |
11,33,430 19,117 |
1,31,805 143 |
9,88,341 19,113 |
13,284 147 |
|
DistrictCases Bilaspur100 Korba100 Mungeli87 Baloda Bazar85 Jashpur77 Janjgir-Champa56 Mahasamund54 Rajnandgaon52 Kabirdham52 Raigarh47 Raipur46 Balod41 Korea39 Durg31 Bemetara21 Kanker19 Balrampur17 Surguja14 Gariyaband10 Surajpur9 Dhamtari6 Bijapur2 Bastar2 Dantewada0 Kondagaon0 Narayanpur0 Sukma0 |
9,12,477 4,888 |
1,03,593 6,808 |
7,97,150 11,552 |
11,734 144 |
|
DistrictCases Jaipur2,177 Jodhpur1,748 Udaipur724 Bharatpur563 Kota503 Nagaur500 Ajmer379 Dungarpur374 Pali352 Jhalawar329 Bhilwara250 Sikar231 Chittorgarh188 Tonk171 Jalore164 Rajsamand140 Sirohi130 Bikaner112 Banswara91 Alwar90 Churu81 Jhunjhunu64 Dausa61 Dholpur60 Baran59 Jaisalmer53 Barmer34 Hanumangarh31 SawaiMadhopur26 Karauli17 Pratapgarh14 Ganganagar8 Bundi5 |
8,59,669 10,280 |
1,94,382 14,316 |
6,58,510 24,440 |
6,777 156 |
|
DistrictCases Ahmadabad17,125 Surat2,311 Vadodara1,555 Gandhinagar410 Mahesana159 Banas Kantha147 Bhavnagar146 Rajkot135 Arvalli134 Mahisagar125 Anand107 PanchMahals107 Patan105 SabarKantha101 Kachchh99 Kheda98 Jamnagar63 Bharuch56 Botad55 Surendranagar55 Valsad47 GirSomnath45 Dohad43 Chhotaudepur37 Naysari35 Junagadh31 Narmada25 DevbhumiDwarka22 Amreli16 Porbandar11 Tapi6 Dang5 Morbi4 |
7,52,619 8,210 |
1,04,908 6,355 |
6,38,590 14,483 |
9,121 82 |
|
DistrictCases Indore3,839 Bhopal1,880 Ujjain799 Burhanpur351 Neemuch319 Jabalpur276 East Nimar266 Sagar228 Gwalior211 Khargone196 Dewas140 Dhar132 Mandsaur112 Morena109 Bhind87 Raisen71 Barwani60 Ratlam51 Rewa39 Shajapur39 Hoshangabad37 Vidisha37 Chhatarpur35 Betul35 Rajgarh31 Dindori29 Sheopur26 Damoh26 Satna24 Anuppur22 Panna20 Tikamgarh18 Sidhi17 Narsinghpur17 Chhindwara16 Agar Malwa15 Mandla15 Shivpuri15 Jhabua14 Shandol14 Singrauli13 Ashoknagar13 Datia12 Sehore12 Umaria10 Balaghat9 Guna8 Harda4 Alirajpur3 Katni3 Seoni2 Niwari0 |
7,31,385 7,106 |
94,652 5,318 |
6,29,741 12,345 |
6,992 79 |
|
DistrictCases Gurugram2,950 Faridabad867 Sonipat404 Rohtak145 Palwal120 Jhajjar114 Karnal104 Hisar98 Ambala93 Panipat78 Nuh68 Bhiwani60 Rewari56 Kurukshetra55 Sirsa50 Kaithal48 Mahendragarh47 CharkiDadri43 Panchkula39 Fatehabad38 Jind38 Yamunanagar19 |
6,94,427 9,115 |
90,066 5,880 |
5,97,676 14,856 |
6,685 139 |
|
DistrictCases Patna279 Bhagalpur266 Rohtas256 Khagaria253 Begusarai243 Madhubani199 Munger188 Jehanabad178 Katihar175 Darbhanga143 Samastipur139 Siwan139 PurbiChamparan138 Purnia135 Banka134 Buxar134 Nalanda123 Gopalganj123 Nawada122 Sheikhpura118 Gaya115 Kaimur (bhabua)105 Bhojpur103 Saran101 Muzaffarpur96 Saharsa88 Supaul87 Vaishali87 Madhepura82 Kishanganj75 Aurangabad75 Sitamarhi73 Lakhisarai72 Araria68 Pashchim Champaran57 Arwal52 Jamui47 Sheohar20 |
6,51,909 6,894 |
75,090 7,397 |
5,72,987 14,202 |
3,832 89 |
|
DistrictCases Ganjam581 Jajapur322 Khordha238 Baleshwar190 Kendrapara164 Cuttack155 Bhadrak137 Balangir129 Puri103 Sundargarh102 Jagatsinghapur91 Nayagarh86 Mayurbhanj73 Nuapada69 Gajapati61 Dhenkanal36 Boudh34 Kendujhar34 Deogarh33 Kalahandi33 Sonepur29 Kandhamal28 Anugul26 Malkangiri20 Bargarh16 Koraput16 Sambalpur16 Jharsuguda8 Nabarangpur2 Rayagada2 |
6,12,224 11,732 |
95,379 364 |
5,14,532 12,077 |
2,313 19 |
|
DistrictCases Hyderabad2,475 Ranga Reddy183 Suryapet87 Jagitial77 Nizamabad76 MedchalMalkajgiri75 Mancherial43 YadadriBhuvanagiri40 Jogulamba Gadwal40 Vikarabad40 Nalgonda33 Warangal Urban32 Mahabubnagar30 Sangareddy26 Khammam26 Adilabad22 Nirmal21 Karimnagar17 RajannaSircilla16 Medak11 Kamareddy11 Mahabubabad10 Jayashankar Bhupalapally9 Nagarkurnool8 Kumuram Bheem Asifabad8 Jangoan8 Siddipet7 Peddapalli5 Bhadradri Kothagudem5 Warangal Rural4 Mulugu3 Narayanpet3 Wanaparthy1 |
5,28,823 3,816 |
50,969 2,103 |
4,74,899 5,892 |
2,955 27 |
|
DistrictCases Amritsar485 Jalandhar297 Ludhiana293 Tarn Taran163 Gurdaspur154 Hoshiarpur140 S.A.S Nagar137 Patiala132 Sangrur107 Shahid Bhagat Singh Nagar (Nawanshahr)99 Pathankot86 Rupnagar (Ropar)74 Faridkot74 Sri Muktsar Sahib71 Moga65 Bathinda60 Fatehgarh Sahib57 Fazilka53 Firozepur50 Kapurthala44 Mansa31 Barnala25 |
4,97,705 6,950 |
75,478 2,311 |
4,10,332 9,059 |
11,895 202 |
|
DistrictCases Kamrup Metro276 Golaghat203 Nagaon143 Hojai89 Dima Hasao86 Karimganj85 Tinsukia84 Cachar80 Dibrugarh61 Hailakandi57 Lakhimpur57 Marigaon50 Dhemaji47 Kamrup42 Kokrajhar37 Dhubri30 Charaideo29 Barpeta28 Udalguri28 Sonitpur27 Jorhat24 Nalbari23 Darrang20 Sivasagar20 Goalpara19 Biswanath16 Baksa14 KarbiAnglong13 Bongaigaon12 Chirang6 West KarbiAnglong5 South SalmaraMancachar4 Majuli2 |
3,28,629 3,650 |
44,724 631 |
2,81,726 4,225 |
2,179 56 |
|
DistrictCases East Singhbum170 Ranchi148 Hazaribagh110 Garhwa80 Ramgarh75 Koderma58 Simdega48 Dhanbad32 Gumla28 Palamu27 West Singhbhum21 SaraikelaKharsawan20 Giridih19 Bokaro16 Latehar14 Khunti10 Lohardaga8 Deoghar5 Dumka5 Pakur4 Jamtara2 Godda2 Chatra1 Sahebganj0 |
3,15,502 2,321 |
36,540 4,846 |
2,74,483 7,119 |
4,479 48 |
|
DistrictCases Dehradun370 Nainital323 Tehri Garhwal110 Haridwar94 Udam Singh Nagar83 Almora71 Champawat45 Pithoragarh43 Chamoli36 PauriGarhwal36 Bageshwar31 Rudraprayag30 Uttar Kashi24 |
2,87,286 4,047 |
78,802 1,198 |
2,03,673 5,057 |
4,811 188 |
|
DistrictCases Anantnag395 Srinagar300 Kulgam295 Baramulla271 Shopian255 Kupwara231 Bandipora175 Udhampur155 Ramban151 Jammu138 Budgam110 Pulwama108 Kathua53 Rajouri39 Ganderbal37 Poonch35 Doda27 Reasi26 Samba25 Kishtwar10 Mirpur0 Muzaffarabad0 |
2,44,608 4,141 |
51,623 148 |
1,89,836 3,934 |
3,149 59 |
|
DistrictCases Hamirpur117 Kangra105 Una41 Solan32 Chamba29 Bilaspur21 Mandi21 Sirmaur11 Shimla10 Kullu4 Kinnaur2 Lahaul And Spiti0 |
1,60,240 2,378 |
36,909 2,666 |
1,21,007 4,974 |
2,324 70 |
|
DistrictCases South Goa69 North Goa57 |
1,35,856 1,314 |
28,252 2,522 |
1,05,505 3,793 |
2,099 43 |
|
DistrictCases Pondicherry111 Mahe4 Karaikal2 Yanam0 |
84,506 1,961 |
17,666 438 |
65,689 1,491 |
1,151 32 |
|
DistrictCases Chandigarh313 |
55,367 664 |
7,644 203 |
47,088 857 |
635 10 |
|
DistrictCases Dhalai196 Sepahijala174 Gomati74 South Tripura53 Unakoti49 West Tripura45 Khowai24 North Tripura14 |
41,151 335 |
4,894 31 |
35,816 294 |
441 10 |
|
DistrictCases Churachandpur32 Kangpokpi26 Imphal West21 Thoubal18 Imphal East10 Tengnoupal9 Bishnupur7 Senapati6 Chandel5 Kamjong5 Ukhrul4 Jiribam3 Pherzawl3 Kakching2 Tamenglong2 Noney1 |
39,729 677 |
6,477 262 |
32,674 399 |
578 16 |
|
DistrictCases East Khasi Hills22 West Garo Hills5 South West Garo Hills4 North Garo Hills1 West Jaintia Hills1 West Khasi Hills1 East Garo Hills0 East Jaintia Hills0 Ribhoi0 South Garo Hills0 South West Khasi Hills0 |
23,332 569 |
4,534 196 |
18,478 354 |
320 19 |
|
DistrictCases Changlang31 Papum Pare8 Lohit3 Namsai2 West Siang1 East Siang1 Upper Siang1 Tawang1 PakkeKessang1 West Kameng0 Upper Subansiri0 Tirap0 Siang0 Shi Yomi0 Anjaw0 Lower Subansiri0 Lower Dibang Valley0 Longding0 Leparada0 KurungKumey0 KraDaadi0 Kamle0 East Kameng0 Dibang Valley0 Lower Siang0 |
21,802 180 |
2,260 9 |
19,461 168 |
81 3 |
|
DistrictCases Dimapur20 Mon8 Kohima7 Kiphire3 Tuensang3 Peren2 Phek1 Longleng0 Mokokchung0 Wokha0 Zunheboto0 |
18,076 241 |
4,100 115 |
13,767 113 |
209 13 |
|
DistrictCases Kargil77 LehLadakh43 |
16,452 119 |
1,546 3 |
14,741 122 |
165 |
|
DistrictCases East District3 South District3 North District0 West District0 |
11,410 340 |
3,096 86 |
8,109 252 |
205 2 |
|
DistrictCases Dadra And Nagar Haveli20 |
9,550 103 |
801 66 |
8,745 169 |
4 |
|
DistrictCases Kolasib11 Aizawl10 Mamit8 Lawngtlai2 Lunglei2 Saitual1 Champhai0 Hnahthial0 Khawzawl0 Saiha0 Serchhip0 |
8,829 149 |
2,117 41 |
6,687 189 |
25 1 |
|
DistrictCases South Andamans33 Nicobars1 North And Middle Andaman1 |
6,603 35 |
232 16 |
6,283 16 |
88 3 |
|
DistrictCases Lakshadweep District0 |
4,767 117 |
1,120 30 |
3,633 146 |
14 1 |